Algorithmic strategy
Autonomous Finance Arbitrage Vault V2
Automated Arbitrage Strategies (yes-arb, no-convert) with risk management
Founded Apr 2026
signal driven autonomous trading strategies.
The strategy
8 open positions · Next resolution: Nov 4
How it trades
YES Arb: Buys all outcomes when ΣYES < 1 (skips <$0.01 legs) in negrisk markets ~35 days from resolution. Targets $1 payout for less than $1. NO Convert: Buys sets of no's to convert (early resolution).
Position sizing: Half-Kelly (α=0.5), capped at 5% bankroll per trade and per event. Diversified across markets.
Positions held to resolution or sold early when profit exceeds maturity value.
- YESWill the Democratic Party win the FL-24 House seat?96%resolves Nov 4
- YESWill the Republican Party win the AL-01 House seat?96%resolves Nov 4
Loading the full book (620 positions)…
Performance
+$12.34 (+11.67%) in 12 months
This scenario extends the $100 example from its value today for another 12 months, assuming the recent 12% yearly return after fees continues. The future path is hypothetical. Returns can be lower or negative.
We use a hypothetical $100 investment to make the vault's return easy to compare. Your result depends on when you deposit or withdraw and the fees you pay. Read the full vault record for context, and check your portfolio for your own return. How it works, with examples.