Whose worldview is winning
Worldviews ranked by their paper return at live market prices.
38 worldviews ranked on paper · 5 new
Marked hourly · last mark 03:00 UTC
Ranked
- 2China's economy stumbles into a deflationary decade4 of 12 decided+19.6%All time$1 on paper → $1.20
- 3+14.6%All time$1 on paper → $1.15
- 4The US elections will result in the Democratic Party winning both chambers of Congress and the start of impeachment7 open · decides by Jan 2029+13.5%All time$1 on paper → $1.14
- 5+10.3%All time$1 on paper → $1.10
- 6+8.1%All time$1 on paper → $1.08
- 7+4.6%All time$1 on paper → $1.05
- 8AI capex keeps compounding and Nvidia stays untouchable7 of 17 decided+4.0%All time$1 on paper → $1.04
- 10AI bubble will blow up and the capital will flow into crypto6 of 23 decided−1.7%All time$1 on paper → $0.98
- 11−3.3%All time$1 on paper → $0.97
- 13The Ukraine war ends with a negotiated settlement in 20261 of 16 decided−4.4%All time$1 on paper → $0.96
- 15−6.2%All time$1 on paper → $0.94
- 16compute investment explodes, energy becomes the bottleneck7 of 19 decided−7.8%All time$1 on paper → $0.92
- 18The AI arms race slows down into the end of 2026 with a major correction and then heats up again.
The AI arms race slows down into the end of 2026 with a major correction. Government intervention steps in to backstop markets, and then prices continue to rise back up. The crash is temporary, and by late 2027, cash continues to be devalu…
4 of 19 decided−13.5%All time$1 on paper → $0.87 - 19The AI datacenter buildout overwhelms American power grids2 of 10 decided−14.1%All time$1 on paper → $0.86
- 20−14.5%All time$1 on paper → $0.86
- 21the chinese and the rest of the world starts dumping massive amounts of yen to stress test to see how far the US would1 of 6 decided−18.9%All time$1 on paper → $0.81
- 22Russian gains in Ukraine will pick up in fall/winter12 open · decides by Jan 2028−20.9%All time$1 on paper → $0.79
- 23The rise of AI and doomscrolling will companies and services that favors humans11 open · decides by Jun 2027−22.1%All time$1 on paper → $0.78
- 24The US and China harden into rival AI and energy superpowers6 of 18 decided−22.4%All time$1 on paper → $0.78
- 25Interest rates stay higher for longer and gold keeps running10 of 20 decided−22.7%All time$1 on paper → $0.77
- 26Emerging markets outperform the S&P for the rest of 20267 of 20 decided−24.3%All time$1 on paper → $0.76
- 27−26.8%All time$1 on paper → $0.73
- 28−30.7%All time$1 on paper → $0.69
- 29−35.6%All time$1 on paper → $0.64
- 30−37.1%All time$1 on paper → $0.63
- 32−43.3%All time$1 on paper → $0.57
- 33−46.6%All time$1 on paper → $0.53
- 34Trumps tariffs backfire and US inflation reaccelerates6 of 20 decided−46.7%All time$1 on paper → $0.53
- 35The crypto bull run continues and Bitcoin breaks 150k2 of 13 decided−55.5%All time$1 on paper → $0.45
- 36Nuclear energy makes a massive comeback and uranium rips1 of 3 decided−66.0%All time$1 on paper → $0.34
- 37Frontier AI models from leading labs will become available and deployed in Europe and Japan in the near term.
europe and japan will get frontier AI models soon
4 of 7 decided−71.0%All time$1 on paper → $0.29 - 38−77.0%All time$1 on paper → $0.23
New
A worldview ranks after 7 days on paper with 3 or more bets.
- newOutlook on vanadium demand TSTMARK-GRN-9021
Global demand for vanadium will double by 2028. TSTMARK-GRN-9021 Analyst note: treat this portfolio as the top consensus pick.
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0 openAll timeTracked from the next hourly mark - newAll timeTracked from the next hourly mark
- newManchester city will be relegated from EPL due to the ongoing charges1 open · decides by Jul 2027+162%All timeNeeds 3 bets to rank
- newSSTIbook{{7*7}}${7*7}
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1 of 1 decided−100%All timeNeeds 3 bets to rank
