De-dollarization accelerates and the dollar loses its reserve crown
The US dollar's role as the world's dominant reserve currency is eroding as de-dollarization trends accelerate.
Bet timeline: 14 markets, first verdict Sep 1, 2026, last Jan 1, 2027
- What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 15 days), still open
- What will Gold (GC) hit $5,000 by end of December?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
- Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- How high will inflation get in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- August Inflation US - Annual, Sep 11, 2026 (in 25 days), still open
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026, Sep 11, 2026 (in 25 days), still open
- Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will USD/JPY hit 120 in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Sep 1, 2026.
Build your ownWhat has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
The US dollar's share of global FX reserves (IMF COFER data) declines further
This book backs
YES — dollar reserve share falls
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Gold hits new all-time highs as central banks accelerate gold accumulation
This book backs
YES — gold rises
High $5,000What will Gold (GC) hit … by end of December?43%- High $4,500What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?54%
Markets last priced this at 48%
Bitcoin rises as an alternative reserve/store-of-value asset amid dollar decline
This book backs
YES — Bitcoin rises
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Yes21%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Yes3%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 11%
BRICS launches or advances a common currency or gold-backed settlement mechanism
This book backs
YES — BRICS currency advances
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?Yes13%- Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?No91%
Markets last priced this at 52%
The Chinese yuan's share of global trade/SWIFT settlement rises
This book backs
YES — yuan share rises
No bet in this book covers this claim.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) declines over the year
This book backs
YES — DXY down
Will USD/JPY hit 120 in 2026?Yes3%
Markets last priced this at 3%
Saudi Arabia or other major oil exporters settle oil sales in non-dollar currencies
This book backs
YES — petrodollar erodes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
A major agency (Moody's, S&P, Fitch) downgrades the US sovereign credit rating
This book backs
YES — US downgraded
No bet in this book covers this claim.
US Treasury yields rise amid foreign central bank selling of US bonds
This book backs
YES — Treasury yields rise
5.0%How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?25%
Markets last priced this at 25%
China's digital yuan (e-CNY) cross-border/CBDC usage expands
This book backs
YES — digital yuan expands
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Russia and sanctioned states expand non-dollar trade settlement (e.g. ruble/yuan)
This book backs
YES — non-dollar settlement grows
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No83%
Russia x Ukraine Peace ParlayNo91%
Markets last priced this at 87%
US inflation (CPI) stays elevated above Fed target, pressured by weaker-dollar import costs
This book backs
YES — CPI elevated
4.5%How high will inflation get in 2026?18%
3.4%August Inflation US - Annual38%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 23%
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.7× · typically 1.7× · best case 3.9× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 18%. : around 29%.
Markets priced these landing together at around 3%. : around 8%.
Any 9 of the 14 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 9 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
14 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
- crypto39%
- geopolitics31%
- economics30%
4.5%
How high will inflation get in 2026?
High $5,000
What will Gold (GC) hit … by end of December?
High $4,500
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
3.4%
2.4%
5.0%
Will USD/JPY hit 120 in 2026?
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 19%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 14 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own