Reality is a new asset class.
Prediction-market vaults and the worldviews behind them.
Say what you believe. ZEIT turns it into a basket of live-market bets and tracks it on paper.
38 worldviews ranked on paper · 2 community worldviews
Heatmap · paper
HeatmapAI chip exports licensed 35% −15 pts. Opens: Frontier AI models from leading labs will become available and deployed in Europe and Japan in the near term.Trump gets impeached 72% +4 pts. Opens: The US elections will result in the Democratic Party winning both chambers of Congress and the start of impeachmentB200 Index under $7 34% +11 pts. Opens: GLP over GPTAI bubble bursts 2026 6% −1.3 pts. Opens: The AI arms race slows down into the end of 2026 with a major correction and then heats up again.
pricedTrump gets impeached 68% 72%AI chip exports licensed 51% 35%
0 rose38 flat0 fell
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Vaults · real money
3 live
Community worldviews
Strategies
2 community worldviews · 1 strategy
All vaultsLeaderboard · paper
- 1Google wins the AI race and OpenAI loses its crown+81.2%
15 bets · since Aug 15
- 2China's economy stumbles into a deflationary decade+30.5%
12 bets · since Aug 14
- 3De-dollarization accelerates and the dollar loses its reserve crown+19.6%
14 bets · since Aug 14
- 4The US elections will result in the Democratic Party winning both chambers of Congress and the start of impeachment+9.3%
7 bets · since Aug 17
- 5AI capex keeps compounding and Nvidia stays untouchable+8.7%
17 bets · since Aug 15
38 worldviews ranked · 1 new
LeaderboardFrom worldview to vault
Write it
“Google wins the AI race and OpenAI loses its crown”
Built Aug 15 · 15 bets
Tracked on paper
+81.2%
since Aug 15
Ranked
#1 of 38
Ranks after 7 days with 3 or more bets
Becomes a vault
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