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38 worldviews ranked on paper · 2 community worldviews

Heatmap · paper

Held most:

AI chip exports licensed 46% +4 pts. Opens: Frontier AI models from leading labs will become available and deployed in Europe and Japan in the near term.Nikkei below 55000 13% −1.9 pts. Opens: the chinese and the rest of the world starts dumping massive amounts of yen to stress test to see how far the US would New US nuclear reactor 5% −3 pts. Opens: The US and China harden into rival AI and energy superpowers Peace talks commence 63% −5 pts. Opens: the US is swinging more towards republicans

priced 20:26 UTC

AI chip exports licensed 42% 46%New US nuclear reactor 8% 5%

12 rose6 flat20 fell

China's economy stumbles−1.2%China will win…+9.7%US and China−2.4%AI arms race−4.5%US elections+0.3%US is swinging more towards republicans−0.4%Ukraine ultimately wins…−1.2%Russia's territorialflat Ukraine war+1.2%Russian gains…−0.8%Western Europeflat Rise of AI−2.3%Middle East spirals−2.1%US and Iran−2.3%+1.3%Interest rates−2.0%US housing market+9.2%Trumps tariffs…−4.7%Emerging markets…flat Chinese and the rest−12%Google wins the AI race and OpenAI…−2.0%LLM IQ has topped−1.1%AI arms race+3.0%GLP over GPTflat +35%AI capex…−2.5%−3.9%AI datacenter buildoutflat AI bubble will blow up and the capital…−1.9%De-dollari…−1.6%My take on society+0.5%−0.7%Crypto bull run+0.5%We will cure cancer+1.0%Bird flu jumps to humans and becomes…+42%Climate changeflat −5.9%Arsenal remain the best team in…+0.5%

China's economy stumbles−1.2%China will win the AI race against US…+9.7%US and China−2.4%AI arms race−4.5%US elections+0.3%US is swinging more towards republicans−0.4%Ukraine ultimately wins the war as…−1.2%Russia's territorialflat Ukraine war+1.2%Russian gains in Ukraine will pick up…−0.8%Western Europeflat Rise of AI−2.3%Middle East spirals−2.1%US and Iran−2.3%+1.3%Interest rates−2.0%US housing market+9.2%−4.7%Emerging markets outperformflat Chinese and the rest−12%Google wins the AI race and OpenAI…−2.0%LLM IQ has topped−1.1%AI arms race+3.0%GLP over GPTflat Frontier AI models+35%AI capex keeps compounding and Nvidia…−2.5%Compute investment−3.9%AI…flat AI bubble will blow up and the capital…−1.9%De-dollarization accelerates and the…−1.6%My take on society+0.5%Bullmarket for crypto−0.7%+0.5%We will cure cancer+1.0%Bird flu jumps to humans and becomes…+42%Climate changeflat Nuclear energy−5.9%Arsenal…+0.5%

China's economy stumbles−1.2%China will win the AI race against US…+9.7%US and China−2.4%AI arms race−4.5%US elections+0.3%US is swinging more towards republicans−0.4%Ukraine ultimately wins the war as…−1.2%Russia's territorialflat Ukraine war+1.2%Russian gains in Ukraine will pick up…−0.8%Western Europeflat Rise of AI−2.3%Middle East spirals−2.1%US and Iran−2.3%Middle East calms down+1.3%Interest rates−2.0%US housing market+9.2%Trumps tariffs backfire−4.7%Emerging markets outperformflat Chinese and the rest−12%Google wins the AI race and OpenAI…−2.0%LLM IQ has topped−1.1%AI arms race+3.0%GLP over GPTflat Frontier AI models+35%AI capex keeps compounding and Nvidia…−2.5%Compute investment−3.9%AI datacenter buildoutflat AI bubble will blow up and the capital…−1.9%De-dollarization accelerates and the…−1.6%My take on society+0.5%Bullmarket for crypto−0.7%+0.5%We will cure cancer+1.0%Bird flu jumps to humans and becomes…+42%Climate changeflat Nuclear energy−5.9%Arsenal remain the best team in…+0.5%

Any block opens the worldview behind it.

marked 21:00 UTC

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Community worldviews

Internet child's War Chest
WAR · 0xinternetchild
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Unit price last published Oct 1
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Autonomous Finance Arbitrage Vault V2
AUTO2 · autonomous_af
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2 community worldviews · 1 strategy

Leaderboard · paper

All30d7d

1
Google wins the AI race and OpenAI loses its crown
15 bets · since Aug 15
+78.9%
2
China's economy stumbles into a deflationary decade
12 bets · since Aug 14
+31.7%
3
De-dollarization accelerates and the dollar loses its reserve crown
14 bets · since Aug 14
+17.9%
4
The US elections will result in the Democratic Party winning both chambers of Congress and the start of impeachment
7 bets · since Aug 17
+10.1%
5
AI capex keeps compounding and Nvidia stays untouchable
17 bets · since Aug 15
+8.1%

38 worldviews ranked · 1 new

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“Google wins the AI race and OpenAI loses its crown”
Built Aug 15 · 15 bets
Tracked on paper
+78.9%
since Aug 15
Ranked
#1 of 38
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