Ukraine ultimately wins the war as Russian offensive capability is gradually
Ukraine will ultimately win the war as Russia's offensive capability is ground down by battlefield losses, Ukrainian deep strikes, and economic pressure, letting Ukraine reclaim occupied territory while military failure destabilizes Putin's regime.
Bet timeline: 20 markets, first verdict Sep 30, 2026, last Jun 30, 2027
- Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?, Mar 31, 2027 (in 7 months), still open
- Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Russia coup attempt in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by September 30?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 43 days), still open
- Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 43 days), still open
- Putin out as President of Russia by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?, Jun 30, 2027 (in 10 months), still open
- Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 43 days), still open
- NATO article 5 before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro), Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
Money back if its 2 biggest bets land. First verdict Sep 30, 2026.
Ukraine ultimately wins the war as Russian offensive capability is gradually exhausted by battlefield losses, Ukrainian deep strikes and economic pressure, allowing Ukraine to regain occupied territory while military failure increasingly threatens Putin’s regime.
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
Russia's 2026 offensive stalls without capturing a major Ukrainian city (e.g. Pokrovsk, Kupiansk)91%at save
This book backs
Russian offensive fails to take the city
What that looks like: Russian offensive around Pokrovsk/Kupiansk halts or reverses within 2 months
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?No93%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?No97%- +3 more bets
Markets last priced this at 91%
Russia does not use or credibly threaten nuclear weapons despite battlefield exhaustion
This book backs
No nuclear use or escalation
What that looks like: No Russian nuclear alert, test, or explicit use threat over the war
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What confirms it
Russia's economy enters recession as war costs and sanctions bite
This book backs
Russia GDP contracts / recession confirmed
What that looks like: Russian central bank or Rosstat reports negative quarterly GDP growth
No bet in this book covers this claim.
The ruble depreciates sharply against the dollar as war costs mount
This book backs
Ruble weakens significantly
What that looks like: Ruble crosses a new multi-year low against USD
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Russian oil export revenue falls as the price cap and sanctions enforcement tighten
This book backs
Russian oil revenue declines
What that looks like: Urals crude trades persistently below the G7 price cap with falling export volumes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Ukraine secures stronger Western security guarantees or a path toward NATO-linked support as Russia weakens
This book backs
Security guarantees for Ukraine advance
What that looks like: NATO or a coalition announces new binding security commitments to Ukraine
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Russia does not open a second front or attack a NATO member (e.g. Baltic states, Poland) as it lacks spare offensive capacity94%at save
This book backs
No Article 5 trigger / no attack on NATO member
What that looks like: No Russian military incursion or attack against a NATO member state
NATO article 5 before 2027?No94%
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No95%
Markets last priced this at 94%
What pays it off
Ukraine recaptures significant occupied territory (e.g. in Zaporizhzhia or Kherson oblasts) from Russian forces50%at save
This book backs
Ukraine regains territory
What that looks like: Ukrainian forces retake a significant town or frontline sector held by Russia since 2022-2023
June 30, 2027Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?12%
Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by September 30?No83%- +2 more bets
Markets last priced this at 50%
Putin is removed from power or faces a serious internal leadership challenge8%at save
This book backs
Putin ousted or seriously challenged
What that looks like: Credible elite defection, coup attempt, or succession crisis reported around Putin
Russia coup attempt in 2026?Yes7%
June 30, 2027Putin out as President of Russia by...?13%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 8%
A negotiated settlement or ceasefire requires Russian withdrawal from occupied Ukrainian territory rather than Ukraine ceding land86%at save
This book backs
Deal favors Ukraine's territorial position
What that looks like: Any signed ceasefire/peace framework includes Russian territorial withdrawal
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?No97%
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?No95%- +2 more bets
Markets last priced this at 86%
Ukraine holds a postwar presidential election and Zelensky either wins or a pro-continuation successor is elected95%at save
This book backs
Zelensky or aligned successor wins
What that looks like: Ukraine schedules and holds a presidential election with Zelensky or ally as frontrunner
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No95%
Markets last priced this at 95%
The ICC arrest warrant against Putin gains real enforcement traction (e.g. a state attempts arrest or Putin's travel is constrained)
This book backs
ICC warrant gains traction against Putin
What that looks like: A state detains, blocks, or formally acts on the ICC warrant when Putin travels
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.5× · typically 0.7× · best case 4.1× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these landing together at around 10%. : around 27%.
Markets priced these landing together at around 1%. : around 7%.
Any 16 of the 20 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 16 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
20 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?
June 30, 2027
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by September 30?
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
June 30, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
NATO article 5 before 2027?
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?
December 31
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026?
Vladimir Putin be the next leader
Before 2027
Kramatorsk
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 11%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 20 bets, and how each is sized.
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