Russian gains in Ukraine will pick up in fall/winter
Russia's military advances in Ukraine will accelerate through the fall and winter of 2026-2027.
Only one outcome of one event in this book can win, so the payout is a range.
Bet timeline: 12 markets, first verdict Jan 1, 2027, last Jan 1, 2028
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 3 months), still open
- Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 3 months), still open
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 3 months), still open
- Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 3 months), still open
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 3 months), still open
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 3 months), still open
- Another NATO article 4 by...?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 3 months), still open
- Russia coup attempt in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 3 months), still open
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 3 months), still open
- Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 3 months), still open
- Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?, Jan 1, 2028 (in 15 months), still open
- Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 3 months), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Jan 1, 2027.
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
Pokrovsk falls under Russian control this fallNaN%at save
This book backs
Pokrovsk falls to Russia
What that looks like: Ukrainian General Staff confirms withdrawal from Pokrovsk
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?NoNaN%
Druzkhivka +1 moreWhich cities will Russia enter by December 31?NaN%
Markets last priced this at NaN%
Kupiansk is captured or encircled by Russian forcesNaN%at save
This book backs
Kupiansk falls to Russia
What that looks like: Russian MoD claims full control of Kupiansk
December 31Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?NaN%
Markets last priced this at NaN%
Trump-Putin summit produces no binding breakthroughNaN%at save
This book backs
No breakthrough deal
What that looks like: Summit ends without signed agreement
Not meetWhere will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?NaN%
Markets last priced this at NaN%
A Russian drone or missile incursion into a NATO member (Poland, Baltics) triggers Article 4/5 consultationsNaN%at save
This book backs
Incursion incident occurs
What that looks like: NATO invokes Article 4 consultations after airspace violation
DecemberAnother NATO article 4 by...?NaN%
Markets last priced this at NaN%
Russian strikes on Ukraine's power grid intensify heading into winter
This book backs
Strikes on grid intensify
What that looks like: Large-scale blackouts reported across Ukrainian cities
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What confirms it
Russia captures Kostiantynivka and further Donetsk Oblast towns by winterNaN%at save
This book backs
Kostiantynivka falls to Russia
What that looks like: ISW reports Russian forces enter Kostiantynivka
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?YesNaN%
Markets last priced this at NaN%
No ceasefire or peace agreement is signed before end of winterNaN%at save
This book backs
No ceasefire signed
What that looks like: Peace talks collapse or remain unresolved past February
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?NoNaN%
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?NoNaN%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at NaN%
US military aid to Ukraine continues to shrink or stall under Trump administration
This book backs
US aid decreases
What that looks like: Congress or White House delays/cuts new Ukraine aid package
No bet in this book covers this claim.
European natural gas prices (TTF) rise sharply this winter amid the war
This book backs
TTF gas prices rise
What that looks like: Dutch TTF benchmark climbs above autumn levels into winter
No bet in this book covers this claim.
New EU sanctions package fails to meaningfully alter Russia's war trajectory
This book backs
Sanctions package has limited effect
What that looks like: EU sanctions package passes with carve-outs or weak enforcement
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What pays it off
Russia gains full control of Donetsk Oblast by mid-2027NaN%at save
This book backs
Russia controls all of Donetsk
What that looks like: Russia declares full administrative control of Donetsk region
December 31, 2026Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?NaN%
Markets last priced this at NaN%
Russia's economy proves resilient enough to sustain the offensive through 2027NaN%at save
This book backs
Russia GDP grows
What that looks like: Russian GDP print shows continued growth despite sanctions
Russia coup attempt in 2026?YesNaN%
Markets last priced this at NaN%
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.6× · typically 0.9× · best case 3× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 13%. : around 20%.
Markets priced these odds at around 7%. : around 35%.
Any 9 of the 12 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 9 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
12 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
Druzkhivka +1 more
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
December 31
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?
Not meet
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
December
Another NATO article 4 by...?
December 31, 2026
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 13%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 12 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
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