ZEIT.FINANCE

AI bubble will blow up and the capital will flow into crypto

The AI investment bubble will burst, causing AI/tech valuations to crash while capital rotates into cryptocurrency markets.

Potential upside
+441%
Payout5.4×
per $1 on the 17 core bets · 1× = money back
Market odds32%
what the market priced those 17 at when this was saved
23betsfirst verdictAug 31, 2026in 14 days
+19

Bet timeline: 23 markets, first verdict Aug 31, 2026, last Dec 31, 2028

  • Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in August 2026?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 15 days), still open
  • Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?, Feb 28, 2027 (in 6 months), still open
  • Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • What will be the next Fed rate change?, Dec 31, 2028 (in 28 months), still open
  • US recession by end of 2026?, Jan 31, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit by end of December?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?, Jul 1, 2027 (in 10 months), still open
  • Will OpenAI's valuation hit $700B by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Fed rate hike in 2026?, Dec 9, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • What value will Total Crypto Market Cap hit in 2026?, Jan 2, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Major CEX insolvent in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $525 end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
  • OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in August 2026?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 15 days), still open

Money back if its 2 biggest bets land. First verdict Aug 31, 2026.

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What has to be true

Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.

  1. Nvidia stock suffers a major correction (>30% drawdown from highs) in 2026

    This book backs

    YES

    • Less than $4.00TNvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?11%
    • Low $192What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in August 2026?11%

    Markets last priced this at 11%

  2. OpenAI faces a major valuation writedown, funding crisis, or bankruptcy scare

    This book backs

    YES

    • Less than $1TWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?10%
    • Low $700BWill OpenAI's valuation hit … by December 31?21%
    • +2 more bets

    Markets last priced this at 34%

  3. Nasdaq enters a correction (>10% drop) in 2026

    This book backs

    YES

    • Low $18,000What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit by end of December?29%

    Markets last priced this at 29%

  4. Major AI-linked capex plans (Microsoft, Meta, Google) are cut or scaled back

    This book backs

    YES

    • Low $540What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in August 2026?26%
    • $525Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above … end of August?19%

    Markets last priced this at 25%

  5. TSMC or Nvidia cut AI chip demand/guidance forecasts

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?No90%

    Markets last priced this at 90%

  6. Major tech firms announce large AI-related layoffs

    This book backs

    YES

    • Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?Up73%

    Markets last priced this at 73%

  7. Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high above $150k in 2026

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Yes17%
    • Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Yes4%

    Markets last priced this at 14%

  8. Ethereum significantly outperforms Bitcoin (flippening-adjacent rally) in 2026

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?$3,00048%

    Markets last priced this at 48%

  9. Total crypto market capitalization sets a new all-time high

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?No41%
    • Hit 4TWhat value will Total Crypto Market Cap hit in 2026?4%
    • +1 more bet

    Markets last priced this at 29%

  10. Bitcoin spot ETFs see record net inflows in 2026

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  11. US enters a recession in 2026

    This book backs

    YES

    • US recession by end of 2026?Yes8%

    Markets last priced this at 8%

  12. Federal Reserve cuts rates in response to an economic slowdown

    This book backs

    YES

    • Fed rate hike in 2026?No46%
    • 1 Fed rate cutHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?10%
    • +3 more bets

    Markets last priced this at 31%

If only some of it happens

Drag to see what a partial hit pays.

If 12 of these 23 outcomes occur →≈3.2×per $1
Stake back at 11 of 23

Worst case 1.4× · typically 3.2× · best case 6.5× per $1.

Pick which ones
BetWhat it adds per $1

What brings the money back

Money back · 2 of 23these 2 bets landing returns the full stake.

Markets priced these landing together at around 3%. : around 13%.

Doubled · 3 of 23these 3 bets landing returns 2× the stake.

Markets priced these landing together at under 1%. : around 2%.

Any 11 of the 23 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 11 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.

Where the money sits

23 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.

Stake split by domain
+441%23 bets
  • economics31%
  • ai27%
  • crypto22%
  • tech20%

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

7.1%5.9×

Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?

7.1%2.4×

Low $540

What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in August 2026?

7.1%3.8×

US recession by end of 2026?

6.8%12.5×

Fed rate hike in 2026?

6.8%2.2×

1 Fed rate cut

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

6.8%10.5×

Less than $4.00T

Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?

6.0%9.1×

Low $192

What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in August 2026?

5.4%9.1×

Less than $1T

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

4.8%9.8×

Low $700B

Will OpenAI's valuation hit … by December 31?

4.6%4.9×

No

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

4.4%2.2×
Below a flat split

OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?

4.1%1.1×

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

4.0%1.4×

What will be the next Fed rate change?

4.0%2.7×

Low $18,000

4.0%3.5×

Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?

3.7%1.1×

Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?

2.9%2.1×

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

2.0%29×

Hit 4T

2.0%28.6×

OpenAI announce bankruptcy before 2027

2.0%36.4×

3.7%

2.0%30.3×

Major CEX insolvent in 2026?

1.5%19.4×

$525

1.2%5.4×

Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 7.1%. The second rule marks an equal split.

All 23 bets, and how each is sized.

Think something different? Price it.

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