compute investment explodes, energy becomes the bottleneck
AI-driven compute demand will keep surging, and power generation/grid capacity will become the binding constraint on how fast that buildout can happen.
Bet timeline: 19 markets, first verdict Aug 26, 2026, last Apr 30, 2027
- US recession by end of 2026?, Jan 31, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
- NVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by December 31, 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 Data Center revenue be above $95B?, Aug 26, 2026 (in 8 days), still open
- Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 13 days), still open
- Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?, Oct 1, 2026 (in 44 days), still open
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Amazon 2026 capex above $220B?, Apr 30, 2027 (in 8 months), still open
- GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Which bills will become law in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Fed Decision in September?, Sep 16, 2026 (in 29 days), still open
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep), Sep 16, 2026 (in 29 days), still open
- How high will inflation get in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in August 2026?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
- Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- US economic state at the end of 2026?, Jan 31, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Aug 26, 2026.
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) raise AI capex guidance in upcoming earnings63%at save
This book backs
YES capex guidance raised
What that looks like: Q3/Q4 earnings call raises 2027 capex guidance above prior estimate
$220BAmazon 2026 capex above …?63%
Markets last priced this at 63%
Nvidia data-center revenue and stock price hit new highs80%at save
This book backs
YES new high
What that looks like: Nvidia reports data-center revenue record or stock hits all-time high
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of August?Yes97%- NVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by December 31, 2026?Yes86%
- +2 more bets
Markets last priced this at 80%
Grid interconnection delays cause a major AI data center project to be postponed or relocated56%at save
This book backs
YES delayed/relocated
What that looks like: News of a large data center project delayed citing power availability
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?Yes68%
TexasWill there be a power grid emergency before October 1?44%
Markets last priced this at 56%
What confirms it
US wholesale/retail electricity prices rise materially, attributed partly to data center demand45%at save
This book backs
YES prices rise
What that looks like: EIA or PJM reports notable electricity price increase citing data center load
Data center utility cost protectionWhich bills will become law in 2026?45%
Markets last priced this at 45%
US natural gas demand and prices rise as gas plants are built/expanded to power data centers22%at save
This book backs
YES natural gas demand/prices rise
What that looks like: Henry Hub price rise or new gas-plant-for-datacenter announcement
High $3.00What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in August 2026?22%
Markets last priced this at 22%
Renewable (solar/wind) capacity additions accelerate to help meet data center load growth
This book backs
YES accelerates
What that looks like: Record quarterly solar/wind capacity additions reported
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Bitcoin miners pivot facilities toward AI/HPC hosting due to power-constrained economics
This book backs
YES pivot occurs
What that looks like: A major Bitcoin miner announces conversion of capacity to AI hosting
No bet in this book covers this claim.
US inflation/CPI stays elevated partly due to rising energy and electricity costs27%at save
This book backs
YES CPI elevated
What that looks like: Monthly CPI print shows energy component contributing to above-target inflation
4.5%How high will inflation get in 2026?12%
Pause–Pause–PauseFed decisions (Jun-Sep)71%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 27%
What pays it off
Nuclear power sees a revival — restarts (e.g. Three Mile Island), SMR deals, or extended plant life tied to AI power demand15%at save
This book backs
YES nuclear deal/restart proceeds
What that looks like: A hyperscaler signs or advances a nuclear power purchase agreement
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?Yes15%
Markets last priced this at 15%
Taiwan/TSMC chip manufacturing capacity remains a critical bottleneck and geopolitical flashpoint for AI compute supply8%at save
This book backs
YES remains bottleneck/flashpoint
What that looks like: TSMC reports capacity fully booked or new export-control action on chips to China
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes7%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedWhich companies will the US take a stake in?13%- +2 more bets
Markets last priced this at 8%
Federal or state permitting reform passes to speed up power plant and transmission buildout
This book backs
YES reform passes
What that looks like: Congress or a state legislature passes energy permitting reform legislation
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.9× · typically 2.4× · best case 5.3× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 15%. : around 36%.
Markets priced these landing together at around 2%. : around 7%.
Any 11 of the 19 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 11 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
19 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of August?
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
Data center utility cost protection
Which bills will become law in 2026?
4.5%
How high will inflation get in 2026?
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 Data Center revenue be above $95B?
NVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by December 31, 2026?
$220B
At least $7.00
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Texas
High $3.00
Pause–Pause–Pause
Overheating
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
US recession by end of 2026?
The Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 25%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 19 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own