The Middle East spirals into a wider war and oil prices explode
The Middle East will escalate into a broader regional war, driving oil prices sharply higher.
Bet timeline: 15 markets, first verdict Aug 17, 2026, last Jan 1, 2027
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Crude Oil all time high by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 15 days), still open
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on August 17?, Aug 17, 2026 (today), still open
- Fed Decision in September?, Sep 16, 2026 (in 30 days), still open
- Will gas hit $4.50 by end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
- What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 15 days), still open
- Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- What will Gold (GC) hit $5,000 by end of December?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
- What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in August 2026?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 15 days), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Aug 17, 2026.
Build your ownWhat has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
Israel and Iran engage in direct large-scale military strikes on each other's territory
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
The Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, blocked, or attacked, impeding oil shipping
This book backs
YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No98%
Not return to normal in 2026Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?55%
Markets last priced this at 82%
The United States conducts direct military strikes against Iran
This book backs
YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes17%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes3%
Markets last priced this at 14%
Israel and Hezbollah escalate into a full-scale war in Lebanon
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping continue or escalate further
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure is attacked or the kingdom is drawn into direct conflict
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
A ceasefire in Gaza fails to hold and the war resumes or continues
This book backs
YES
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?Yes16%
Markets last priced this at 16%
Brent crude oil price surges past a high threshold (e.g. $100/barrel)
This book backs
YES
December 31Crude Oil all time high by...?12%
Markets last priced this at 11%
WTI crude oil price rises sharply
This book backs
YES
- High $100What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?8%
- $85WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 17?19%
Markets last priced this at 10%
US CPI inflation rises due to higher energy costs
This book backs
YES
High $4.50Will gas hit … by end of August?11%
Markets last priced this at 11%
The Federal Reserve holds or raises rates rather than cutting, due to energy-driven inflation
This book backs
hold/raise (no cut)
No change in Fed interest ratesFed Decision in September?75%
Markets last priced this at 75%
The S&P 500 declines amid war-driven risk-off selloff
This book backs
YES (decline)
Low $730What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in August 2026?9%
Markets last priced this at 9%
Gold price rises as investors seek safe-haven assets
This book backs
YES
High $4,500What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?54%
GoldBitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 202619%- +2 more bets
Markets last priced this at 44%
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 1.1× · typically 2.5× · best case 5× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 11%. : around 34%.
Markets priced these landing together at around 1%. : around 8%.
Any 8 of the 15 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 8 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
15 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
- geopolitics40%
- economics40%
- monetary17%
- markets3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
No change in Fed interest rates
Fed Decision in September?
High $100
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
December 31
Crude Oil all time high by...?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Not return to normal in 2026
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
High $4,500
Gold
High $5,000
Low $730
High $4.50
$85
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 13%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 15 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own