The AI arms race slows down into the end of 2026 with a major correction and then heats up again.
The AI investment boom cools into a market correction around late 2026, government intervention backstops and reflates prices, and by late 2027 cash keeps losing purchasing power against energy, compute, and memory commodities.
Bet timeline: 19 markets, first verdict Aug 31, 2026, last Jan 1, 2027
- AI bubble burst in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Crude Oil all time high by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- How high will inflation get in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- NVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by December 31, 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit by end of December?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Micron (MU) close above $840 end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 12 days), still open
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- IPOs before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Grok 5 released by...?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 12 days), still open
- Bitcoin all time high by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Databricks' valuation hit $140B by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 12 days), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Aug 31, 2026.
The AI arms race slows down into the end of 2026 with a major correction. Government intervention steps in to backstop markets, and then prices continue to rise back up. The crash is temporary, and by late 2027, cash continues to be devalued against most commodities related to energy, compute, and memory.
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
A major hyperscaler (Microsoft, Google, Meta, or Amazon) cuts or guides down AI/data-center capex in an upcoming earnings report76%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Hyperscaler earnings call includes AI capex guidance cut
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes78%
OpenAIIPOs before 2027?21%
Markets last priced this at 76%
DRAM/NAND memory chip prices continue rising sharply through Q3 2026 on AI datacenter demand89%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Memory spot price index jumps quarter-over-quarter
$840Will Micron (MU) close above … end of August?89%
Markets last priced this at 89%
Credit spreads on AI/data-center infrastructure debt (Oracle, CoreWeave) widen notably, signaling funding stress
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: AI-linked corporate bond spreads widen sharply
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What confirms it
S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100 falls 15%+ from peak, led by AI/semiconductor stocks, by Q1 202715%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Nasdaq-100 closes 15%+ below its prior all-time high
AI bubble burst in 2026?Yes12%
NVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by December 31, 2026?No15%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 15%
Federal Reserve cuts rates or launches an emergency liquidity facility in response to the correction by Q1 20278%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: FOMC announces surprise rate cut or new liquidity facility
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Yes8%
Markets last priced this at 8%
US government provides an explicit financial backstop, loan guarantee, or bailout-like support to a major AI/tech company or the sector9%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Treasury or Commerce Dept announces support package for an AI firm
Micron TechnologyWhich companies will the US take a stake in?9%
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?Yes9%
Markets last priced this at 9%
What pays it off
AI capability progress (new frontier model releases) reaccelerates by late 2027 after the 2026 slowdown
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: A frontier lab ships a major model with a large capability jump
No bet in this book covers this claim.
S&P 500/Nasdaq recovers to new all-time highs within 6-12 months after the correction
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Index closes at a new record high
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Broad commodity index (energy, industrial metals, memory chips) outperforms US dollar cash by late 2027
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: CRB/commodity index posts strong multi-quarter gain vs USD
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Oil or natural gas prices rise significantly by late 2027, partly driven by AI data-center electricity demand64%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Brent or Henry Hub prices up sharply year-over-year
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?No94%
December 31Crude Oil all time high by...?14%
Markets last priced this at 64%
Uranium prices rise substantially by late 2027 on data-center nuclear power demand14%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Uranium spot price sets a multi-year high
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?Yes14%
Markets last priced this at 14%
Bitcoin trades at a new all-time high by late 2027 as a hedge against dollar devaluation55%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: BTC/USD closes above its prior record high
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?No97%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Yes9%- +2 more bets
Markets last priced this at 55%
US CPI inflation remains elevated (above the Fed's 2% target) through late 202713%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Year-over-year CPI print stays above 2%
4.5%How high will inflation get in 2026?13%
Markets last priced this at 13%
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 1.2× · typically 3.1× · best case 5.7× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 12%. : around 41%.
Markets priced these landing together at around 1%. : around 8%.
Any 10 of the 19 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 10 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
19 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
$840
Will Micron (MU) close above … end of August?
AI bubble burst in 2026?
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
4.5%
How high will inflation get in 2026?
December 31
Crude Oil all time high by...?
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
NVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by December 31, 2026?
Low $18,000
Micron Technology
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Low $140B
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
December 31
OpenAI
August
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 18%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 19 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own