We will cure cancer
Medical science will achieve a cure, or major curative breakthroughs, for cancer.
Bet timeline: 4 markets, 1 happened, first verdict Nov 3, 2026, last Dec 31, 2027
- Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?, Jun 30, 2027 (in 9 months), still open
- FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?, Dec 31, 2026, happened
- FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?, Dec 31, 2027 (in 15 months), still open
- California Immunology Research Bond Proposition, Nov 3, 2026 (in 29 days), still open
Money back if its 2 biggest bets land. Next verdict Nov 3, 2026.
Tracked since Aug 21 · −3.2% on paper
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
FDA approves a novel cancer therapy (e.g. mRNA vaccine or CAR-T) in the near termConfirmed
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: FDA grants approval to a new cancer drug or vaccine
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?Yes90%now100%happened
Confirmed Aug 26, 2026
Moderna/Merck's mRNA-4157 cancer vaccine succeeds in Phase 3 trial75%today
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Moderna/Merck report positive mRNA-4157 Phase 3 data
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?Yes87%now83%- December 31FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?68%now67%
Markets price this at 75% today
FDA grants breakthrough therapy designation to a new oncology drug
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: FDA breakthrough therapy designation announced for a cancer drug
No bet in this book covers this claim.
NIH/National Cancer Institute funding for cancer research increases41%today
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Congress passes budget increasing NIH/NCI cancer research funding
California Immunology Research Bond PropositionYes52%now41%
Markets price this at 41% today
What confirms it
AI-driven drug discovery (e.g. AlphaFold-derived tools) advances a new cancer drug candidate to clinical trials
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: AI-discovered oncology compound enters human trials
No bet in this book covers this claim.
CRISPR gene-editing therapy is approved for a cancer treatment
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Regulator approves a CRISPR-based oncology therapy
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Immunotherapy (checkpoint inhibitors) gains FDA approval for additional cancer types
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: FDA expands checkpoint inhibitor approval to a new cancer indication
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Biotech sector index (e.g. XBI) rallies on oncology breakthrough news
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: XBI biotech index posts a notable rally tied to cancer-drug news
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What pays it off
A leading oncology-focused pharma company's stock price rises significantly
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Moderna or peer stock rises sharply on cancer-drug success
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Overall cancer mortality rate continues to decline / cancer survival rates improve
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: National cancer statistics report show falling mortality rate
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Pancreatic cancer, historically hard to treat, sees a major treatment breakthrough
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: New therapy significantly improves pancreatic cancer survival in trial
No bet in this book covers this claim.
A Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine is awarded for cancer research
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Nobel committee names cancer researchers as laureates
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.1× · typically 0.6× · best case 1.2× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these landing together at around 58%. : around 67%.
Any 4 of the 4 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 4 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
4 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?
December 31
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?
California Immunology Research Bond Proposition
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 47%. The second rule marks an equal split.
The green marks the fewest bets that pay the whole stake back — 2 of 4.
All 4 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own