Bird flu jumps to humans and becomes the next global pandemic
Bird flu (avian influenza) will achieve sustained human-to-human transmission and trigger a new global pandemic.
Bet timeline: 3 markets, first verdict Sep 11, 2026, last Dec 31, 2026
- New pandemic in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Price of Dozen Eggs in August?, Sep 11, 2026 (in 25 days), still open
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Sep 11, 2026.
Build your ownWhat has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
H5N1 bird flu achieves sustained human-to-human transmission
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
WHO declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) for bird flu
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
WHO or a major health body declares a new pandemic in the next 1-3 years
This book backs
YES
New pandemic in 2026?Yes7%
Markets last priced this at 7%
A confirmed human H5N1 case occurs in the United States
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Bird flu causes a significant US egg or poultry price spike
This book backs
YES
≥$2.60Price of Dozen Eggs in August?2%
Markets last priced this at 2%
A bird flu vaccine receives FDA emergency authorization
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Moderna or another mRNA vaccine maker advances an H5N1 vaccine program
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
CDC raises its bird flu risk assessment or issues new emergency guidance
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
US government declares a national public health emergency over bird flu
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Bird flu spreads further into US dairy cattle herds
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Vaccine/biotech stocks (e.g. Moderna) rally on pandemic fears
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Major countries impose international travel or trade restrictions due to bird flu
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
A mutation enabling airborne human transmission is confirmed in H5N1 samples
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Global bird flu-linked human death toll surpasses a notable threshold (e.g. 100+) within the year
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 8.6× · typically 9.9× · best case 16.4× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 7%. : around 31%.
Markets priced these odds at around 7%. : around 31%.
Any 1 of the 3 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 1 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
3 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
- public health49%
- markets49%
- agriculture/economics2%
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
New pandemic in 2026?
≥$2.60
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 49%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 3 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own