ZEIT.FINANCE

Google wins the AI race and OpenAI loses its crown

Google will decisively lead the AI industry while OpenAI declines from its position as the dominant AI company.

Potential upside
+395%
Payout5×
per $1 on the 11 core bets · 1× = money back
Market odds51%
what the market priced those 11 at when this was saved
15betsfirst verdictAug 31, 2026in 14 days
+11

Bet timeline: 15 markets, first verdict Aug 31, 2026, last Dec 31, 2027

  • Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Which company has best AI model end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
  • Largest Company end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
  • Alphabet’s Market Cap end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Second-best AI Lab end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
  • Which CEOs will be out before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
  • OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Largest private company end of August?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 15 days), still open
  • Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?, Oct 31, 2026 (in 2 months), still open
  • Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?, Dec 31, 2027 (in 16 months), still open
  • Anthropic vs OpenAI — greater valuation growth August 2026, Sep 1, 2026 (in 15 days), still open
  • Will Anthropic’s valuation hit $2.0T by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open

Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Aug 31, 2026.

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What has to be true

Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.

  1. Google's Gemini holds the top spot on leading AI model benchmark/leaderboard rankings

    This book backs

    Gemini leads

    • GoogleWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?20%
    • Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?No20%
    • +3 more bets

    Markets last priced this at 19%

  2. OpenAI's next flagship model (GPT-5.x or successor) fails to reclaim the top benchmark position

    This book backs

    OpenAI does not lead

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  3. Google Gemini app overtakes ChatGPT in monthly active users

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  4. Google's AI Overviews / AI Mode erodes ChatGPT's role as a primary search/answer tool

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  5. Alphabet becomes the world's most valuable public company by market capitalization

    This book backs

    YES

    • At least $6.00TAlphabet’s Market Cap end of 2026?5%
    • AlphabetLargest Company end of August?1%

    Markets last priced this at 4%

  6. Alphabet stock outperforms Microsoft stock

    This book backs

    Alphabet outperforms

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  7. OpenAI's planned IPO / restructuring is delayed, downsized, or fails to complete as planned

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes83%
    • Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic87%
    • +2 more bets

    Markets last priced this at 77%

  8. Sam Altman departs or is removed as OpenAI CEO

    This book backs

    YES

    • Sam Altman out as OpenAIWhich CEOs will be out before 2027?8%

    Markets last priced this at 8%

  9. Google's in-house TPU chips gain adoption/share against Nvidia GPUs for AI training

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  10. Google avoids a forced breakup or severe structural remedy in its antitrust search case

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  11. Google Cloud's AI-driven revenue growth outpaces Microsoft Azure's AI revenue growth

    This book backs

    Google Cloud outpaces

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  12. Anthropic's Claude overtakes ChatGPT in enterprise/developer market share, further displacing OpenAI

    This book backs

    YES

    • Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?Anthropic93%
    • High $2.0TWill Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?67%
    • +1 more bet

    Markets last priced this at 74%

If only some of it happens

Drag to see what a partial hit pays.

If 8 of these 15 outcomes occur →≈2.6×per $1
Stake back at 9 of 15

Worst case 0.9× · typically 2.6× · best case 11.2× per $1.

Pick which ones
BetWhat it adds per $1

What brings the money back

Money back · 1 of 15this bet landing returns the full stake.

Markets priced these odds at around 16%. : around 30%.

Doubled · 1 of 15this bet landing returns 2× the stake.

Markets priced these odds at around 5%. : around 16%.

Any 9 of the 15 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 9 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.

Where the money sits

15 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.

Stake split by domain
+395%15 bets
  • corporate40%
  • ai33%
  • competition15%
  • markets12%

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

22%1.2×

Google

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

16%5.1×

At least $6.00T

Alphabet’s Market Cap end of 2026?

10%20×

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?

9.3%5.1×

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

7.7%1.2×
Below a flat split

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

6.4%1.1×

High $2.0T

5.5%1.5×

OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?

4.4%5.7×

Anthropic vs OpenAI — greater valuation growth August 2026

3.0%2.1×

Anthropic

3.0%1×

Google

3.0%2.4×

Sam Altman out as OpenAI

3.0%12.5×

Alphabet

2.0%83.3×

Google

2.0%95.2×

Google

2.0%182×

Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 22%. The second rule marks an equal split.

All 15 bets, and how each is sized.

Think something different? Price it.

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