The US housing market finally cracks
The thesis holds that the US housing market is on the verge of a significant downturn, with home prices, sales, and related economic indicators deteriorating.
Bet timeline: 20 markets, first verdict Aug 28, 2026, last Dec 31, 2028
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- US recession by end of 2026?, Jan 31, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
- What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 44 days), still open
- What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 44 days), still open
- What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 44 days), still open
- Fed Decision in September?, Sep 16, 2026 (in 30 days), still open
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 44 days), still open
- What will be the next Fed rate change?, Dec 31, 2028 (in 28 months), still open
- What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
- Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit 7.00% in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?, Oct 29, 2026 (in 2 months), still open
- IPOs before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
- Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?, Sep 5, 2026 (in 19 days), still open
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?, Aug 28, 2026 (in 11 days), still open
- ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
- US economic state at the end of 2026?, Jan 31, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
- Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Aug 28, 2026.
Build your ownWhat has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
US home prices decline year-over-year
This book backs
YES (prices fall)
Less than $1,137,000What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?30%- $1,053,000 and $1,089,000What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30?10%
- +3 more bets
Markets last priced this at 33%
Existing home sales fall to multi-decade lows
This book backs
YES (sales fall)
No bet in this book covers this claim.
A major homebuilder stock declines significantly
This book backs
YES (decline)
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in response to housing/economic weakness
This book backs
YES (rate cut)
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Yes6%
Lower bound reach 3.25% or lowerWhat will Fed Rate hit before 2027?14%- +3 more bets
Markets last priced this at 12%
US enters a recession
This book backs
YES (recession)
US recession by end of 2026?Yes8%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?No62%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 14%
Mortgage delinquencies or foreclosures rise sharply
This book backs
YES (rise)
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac face financial stress or bailout discussions
This book backs
YES (stress)
Fannie MaeIPOs before 2027?7%
Markets last priced this at 7%
US unemployment rate rises
This book backs
YES (rises)
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?Yes28%
Markets last priced this at 28%
S&P 500 enters a bear market / significant correction
This book backs
YES (decline)
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Bitcoin falls amid broader risk-off macro stress
This book backs
YES (falls)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?No83%
GoldBitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 202619%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 54%
Trump approval rating declines amid housing/economic strain
This book backs
YES (declines)
DemocraticACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?88%
Markets last priced this at 88%
US consumer confidence index falls
This book backs
YES (falls)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?Yes44%
Markets last priced this at 44%
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.7× · typically 3.7× · best case 10.6× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 10%. : around 20%.
Markets priced these odds at around 8%. : around 28%.
Any 12 of the 20 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 12 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
20 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
- monetary policy33%
- economics22%
- crypto17%
- housing15%
- politics7%
- labor3%
- consumer confidence3%
- finance0%
US recession by end of 2026?
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Lower bound reach 3.25% or lower
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Democratic
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?
Gold
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
What will be the next Fed rate change?
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?
Between $335,000 and $340,000
$1,053,000 and $1,089,000
Less than $1,137,000
Less than $1,176,000
High 7.00%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?
The Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps
2 Fed rate cuts
Slack
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
Fannie Mae
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 17%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 20 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own