AI capex keeps compounding and Nvidia stays untouchable
The thesis predicts that AI infrastructure capital expenditure will keep growing rapidly and that Nvidia will maintain its dominant, largely unchallenged position in AI chips.
Bet timeline: 17 markets, first verdict Aug 26, 2026, last Dec 31, 2027
- Largest Company end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- AI bubble burst in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?, Aug 26, 2026 (in 9 days), still open
- What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in August 2026?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 15 days), still open
- Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Amazon 2026 capex above $210B?, Apr 30, 2027 (in 8 months), still open
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 Data Center Revenue be above $85B?, Aug 26, 2026 (in 9 days), still open
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?, Dec 31, 2027 (in 16 months), still open
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?, Oct 31, 2026 (in 2 months), still open
- Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit by end of December?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by August 31, 2026?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
Money back if its 2 biggest bets land. First verdict Aug 26, 2026.
Build your ownWhat has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
Nvidia remains the dominant AI GPU/chip supplier through 2026
This book backs
Yes
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?Yes94%
$85BWill NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 Data Center Revenue be above …?71%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 62%
Nvidia's market capitalization sets new record highs
This book backs
Yes
NVIDIALargest Company end of August?97%
At least $6.50TNvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?18%- +2 more bets
Markets last priced this at 72%
Nasdaq/S&P 500 continue setting new all-time highs, led by AI/tech stocks
This book backs
Yes
High $45,000What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit by end of December?6%
Markets last priced this at 6%
No major AI-bubble crash or sharp AI-driven stock market correction occurs
This book backs
No
AI bubble burst in 2026?No86%
Markets last priced this at 86%
Microsoft, OpenAI and other hyperscalers raise AI capex guidance further rather than cutting it
This book backs
Yes
$1TOpenAI IPO closing market cap above …?76%
$210BAmazon 2026 capex above …?70%
Markets last priced this at 74%
No China-Taiwan military conflict or blockade disrupts TSMC chip production
This book backs
No
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No96%
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?No95%
Markets last priced this at 96%
US export controls on advanced chips to China are eased or stay stable rather than tightened further against Nvidia
This book backs
Eased
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Data center power demand drives a buildout of nuclear/natural gas capacity
This book backs
Yes
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?No33%
Markets last priced this at 33%
Federal Reserve maintains or cuts rates, supporting continued risk-asset/AI capex financing
This book backs
Rate cut
NoHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?53%
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Yes6%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 36%
AMD and custom in-house AI chips (e.g. from hyperscalers) fail to significantly erode Nvidia's market share
This book backs
No
No bet in this book covers this claim.
No antitrust action or breakup materially impairs Nvidia's business
This book backs
No
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.5× · typically 0.8× · best case 2× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these landing together at around 15%. : around 32%.
Markets priced these landing together at under 1%. : around 1%.
Any 13 of the 17 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 13 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
17 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
- economics/markets37%
- geopolitics26%
- tech/AI18%
- economics/monetary17%
- energy2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
NVIDIA
Largest Company end of August?
AI bubble burst in 2026?
At least $6.50T
Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of August?
$1T
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above …?
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?
$210B
$85B
No
High $45,000
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
High $232
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by August 31, 2026?
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 16%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 17 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own