The US elections will result in the Democratic Party winning both chambers of
The thesis predicts the Democratic Party will win control of both the US House and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections and that impeachment proceedings against President Trump will begin as a result.
Bet timeline: 7 markets, first verdict Nov 3, 2026, last Jan 20, 2029
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
- Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?, Jan 20, 2029 (in 29 months), still open
- Maine Senate Election Winner, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
- Michigan Senate Election Winner, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
- Iowa Senate Election Winner, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
- Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
- Delaware Senate Election Winner, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
Money back if its 4 biggest bets land. First verdict Nov 3, 2026.
The US elections will result in the Democratic Party winning both chambers of Congress and the start of impeachment proceedings against the president.
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
Generic congressional ballot polling shows a Democratic lead heading into the midterms
This book backs
Democrats lead generic ballot
What that looks like: Major poll shows Dem +5 or more on generic congressional ballot
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Democrats outperform expectations in 2026 special elections held before November
This book backs
Democrat wins special election
What that looks like: A 2026 special House election flips a seat to Democrats
No bet in this book covers this claim.
S&P 500 experiences a significant volatility spike around the November 2026 election
This book backs
S&P 500 volatility spikes
What that looks like: VIX spikes above 25 in the week surrounding the midterm election
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What confirms it
Democratic Party wins majority control of the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections48%at save
This book backs
Democrats win House majority
What that looks like: November 2026 midterm results show Democrats flip the House
D Senate, D HouseBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms48%
Markets last priced this at 48%
Democratic Party wins majority control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections72%at save
This book backs
Democrats win Senate majority
What that looks like: November 2026 midterm results show Democrats flip the Senate
DemocratsMaine Senate Election Winner70%
DemocratsMichigan Senate Election Winner59%- +3 more bets
Markets last priced this at 72%
What pays it off
The US House initiates formal impeachment proceedings against President Trump
This book backs
Impeachment proceedings begin
What that looks like: House Judiciary Committee opens a formal impeachment inquiry into Trump
No bet in this book covers this claim.
The House votes to approve articles of impeachment against Trump64%at save
This book backs
House approves articles of impeachment
What that looks like: House floor vote passes articles of impeachment against Trump
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?Yes64%
Markets last priced this at 64%
The Senate convenes an impeachment trial for Trump following House impeachment
This book backs
Senate holds impeachment trial
What that looks like: Senate impeachment trial for Trump formally opens
No bet in this book covers this claim.
A Democratic-controlled House passes legislation codifying federal abortion rights
This book backs
House passes abortion rights bill
What that looks like: House floor vote passes a federal abortion-rights codification bill
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Democratic Congress blocks or defunds mass deportation enforcement funding
This book backs
Deportation funding blocked
What that looks like: Congress passes appropriations bill cutting ICE deportation funding
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Democratic-controlled House holds a floor vote on an assault weapons ban
This book backs
House votes on assault weapons ban
What that looks like: House floor vote occurs on federal assault weapons ban
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Democratic Congress passes a new Ukraine military aid package
This book backs
Congress passes Ukraine aid
What that looks like: Congress passes supplemental Ukraine military aid bill
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Democratic Congress advances federal AI regulation legislation
This book backs
AI regulation bill advances
What that looks like: House or Senate committee advances a federal AI regulation bill
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Democratic Congress advances stricter cryptocurrency regulation legislation
This book backs
Crypto regulation bill advances
What that looks like: Congressional committee advances a stricter crypto oversight bill
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.7× · typically 0.8× · best case 1.1× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these landing together at around 19%. : around 41%.
Any 6 of the 7 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 6 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
7 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
Democrats
Delaware Senate Election Winner
Democrats
Iowa Senate Election Winner
Democrats
Maine Senate Election Winner
Democrats
Michigan Senate Election Winner
D Senate, D House
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 14%.
All 7 bets, and how each is sized.
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