ZEIT.FINANCE

GLP over GPT

The worldview predicts that the peptide/GLP-1 drug industry will become a bigger business than the artificial intelligence industry.

Potential upside
+575%
Payout6.7×
per $1 on the 9 core bets · 1× = money back
Market odds24%
what the market priced those 9 at when this was saved
11betsfirst verdictOct 7, 2026in 51 days
+7

Bet timeline: 11 markets, first verdict Oct 7, 2026, last Jul 1, 2027

  • FDA approves Retatrutide this year?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • AI bubble burst in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?, Jul 1, 2027 (in 10 months), still open
  • FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?, Oct 7, 2026 (in 51 days), still open
  • Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Which companies will be acquired before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open

Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Oct 7, 2026.

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peptides will be a bigger biz then ai

What has to be true

Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.

  1. Global GLP-1/obesity drug market revenue surpasses the AI industry's revenue by 2030

    This book backs

    YES

    • Viking TherapeuticsWhich companies will be acquired before 2027?21%
    • Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?Yes13%

    Markets last priced this at 19%

  2. Eli Lilly's market capitalization exceeds Nvidia's market capitalization

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  3. Novo Nordisk stock outperforms leading AI-sector stocks over the year

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  4. AI stocks suffer a major correction / bubble burst

    This book backs

    YES

    • AI bubble burst in 2026?Yes15%
    • Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?No90%

    Markets last priced this at 30%

  5. OpenAI's valuation surpasses $1 trillion

    This book backs

    NO

    • Less than $1TWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?10%
    • Less than $1.25TAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap6%

    Markets last priced this at 9%

  6. Nvidia stock hits a new all-time high this year

    This book backs

    NO

    • Less than $4.00TNvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?11%

    Markets last priced this at 11%

  7. FDA approves an oral GLP-1 pill (oral semaglutide) for weight loss

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  8. FDA bans or sharply restricts compounded semaglutide/tirzepatide

    This book backs

    NO

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  9. A new peptide drug (e.g. retatrutide) receives FDA approval

    This book backs

    YES

    • FDA approves Retatrutide this year?Yes3%

    Markets last priced this at 3%

  10. Medicare expands coverage for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?Yes14%

    Markets last priced this at 14%

  11. A major AI lab publicly claims an AGI milestone this year

    This book backs

    NO

    • OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?No91%

    Markets last priced this at 91%

  12. Research peptide BPC-157 gains formal legal/regulatory approval for medical use

    This book backs

    YES

    • DecemberFDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?56%

    Markets last priced this at 56%

If only some of it happens

Drag to see what a partial hit pays.

If 6 of these 11 outcomes occur →≈4×per $1
Stake back at 6 of 11

Worst case 1.6× · typically 4× · best case 8.1× per $1.

Pick which ones
BetWhat it adds per $1

What brings the money back

Money back · 1 of 11this bet landing returns the full stake.

Markets priced these odds at around 15%. : around 49%.

Doubled · 2 of 11these 2 bets landing returns 2× the stake.

Markets priced these landing together at around 3%. : around 14%.

Any 6 of the 11 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 6 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.

Where the money sits

11 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.

Stake split by domain
+575%11 bets
  • tech49%
  • biotech32%
  • markets17%
  • healthcare policy2%

Less than $4.00T

Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?

17%9.5×

Less than $1T

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

17%9.9×

Viking Therapeutics

Which companies will be acquired before 2027?

17%4.9×

AI bubble burst in 2026?

17%6.8×
Below a flat split

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

5.0%38.5×

Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?

5.0%8×

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

5.0%1.1×

December

5.0%1.8×

Less than $1.25T

4.9%16.7×

Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?

4.5%1.1×

Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?

2.1%7.1×

Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 17%. The second rule marks an equal split.

All 11 bets, and how each is sized.

Think something different? Price it.

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