US and Iran start fighting again militarily before end of year
The US and Iran will resume direct military conflict with each other before the end of 2026.
Bet timeline: 9 markets, first verdict Aug 31, 2026, last Dec 31, 2026
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 13 days), still open
- Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
- Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Crude Oil all time high by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will gas hit $4.50 by end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 13 days), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Aug 31, 2026.
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
US military conducts an airstrike on Iranian nuclear or military targets before Dec 31, 202613%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Pentagon confirms US airstrike on Iranian facility
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes18%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes3%
Markets last priced this at 13%
Iran or its proxies attack US military bases or personnel in the Middle East
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Missile or drone strike on US base in Iraq or Syria reported
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Iran moves to close or disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz96%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Iran seizes or threatens tankers in Hormuz, shipping halted
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No99%
Not return to normal in 2026Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?66%
Markets last priced this at 96%
Israel launches new strikes on Iranian targets that draw direct US military involvement16%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Israeli strike on Iran followed by US military response
DecemberIsrael ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?16%
Markets last priced this at 16%
IAEA reports Iran has enriched uranium near weapons-grade threshold
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: IAEA report cites 90%+ enrichment or breakout capability
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Houthi rebels escalate attacks on US or allied shipping in the Red Sea
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Houthi missile/drone strike on US-linked vessel
No bet in this book covers this claim.
US deploys an additional aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Pentagon announces carrier group redeployment to CENTCOM
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What confirms it
Brent crude oil price spikes above $90/barrel amid US-Iran tensions10%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Brent crude closes above $90/barrel
High $100What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?9%- December 31Crude Oil all time high by...?13%
- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 10%
US Congress holds a War Powers Resolution vote regarding Iran military action
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Congressional vote on War Powers Resolution tied to Iran
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Hezbollah engages in renewed conflict with Israel amid US-Iran escalation
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Hezbollah rocket fire into Israel resumes at scale
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Bitcoin drops sharply in a risk-off move tied to Middle East war escalation19%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Bitcoin falls >10% in 48 hours following Iran-related war news
GoldBitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 202619%
Markets last priced this at 19%
What pays it off
Broader regional war draws in Saudi Arabia or Gulf states before year end
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Gulf state military forces engage in US-Iran conflict
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Iran's regime faces a destabilization or regime-change attempt stemming from conflict with US
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Mass unrest or leadership crisis in Iran following US strikes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 1.2× · typically 2.4× · best case 5.9× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 19%. : around 30%.
Markets priced these odds at around 9%. : around 21%.
Any 5 of the 9 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 5 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
9 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
High $100
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
Gold
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
December 31
Crude Oil all time high by...?
December
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
High $4.50
Not return to normal in 2026
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 25%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 9 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own