ZEIT.FINANCE

Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine picks up in fall and winter 2026

Russia will accelerate its territorial advances in Ukraine during autumn and winter 2026.

Potential upside
+262%
Payout3.6×
per $1 on the 17 core bets · 1× = money back
Market odds75%
what the market priced those 17 at when this was saved
21betsfirst verdictAug 31, 2026in 13 days
+17

Bet timeline: 21 markets, first verdict Aug 31, 2026, last Dec 31, 2026

  • Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 43 days), still open
  • Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 43 days), still open
  • Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 13 days), still open
  • Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • NATO article 5 before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Putin out as President of Russia by...?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 13 days), still open
  • Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Trump meets with Putin by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open

Money back if its 2 biggest bets land. First verdict Aug 31, 2026.

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What has to be true

Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.

  1. Russia captures the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk oblast90%at save

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?No88%
    • Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?No91%

    Markets last priced this at 90%

  2. Russia gains full control of Donetsk oblast by end of 202681%at save

    This book backs

    YES

    • December 31, 2026Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?93%
    • Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?No91%
    • +1 more bet

    Markets last priced this at 81%

  3. Russian forces advance further into Kharkiv oblast8%at save

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?Yes8%

    Markets last priced this at 8%

  4. A ceasefire or peace agreement ending the Ukraine war is NOT reached by winter 202693%at save

    This book backs

    NO

    • Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?No99%
    • Russia x Ukraine Peace ParlayNo90%
    • +2 more bets

    Markets last priced this at 93%

  5. Ukraine is not granted formal NATO membership or accession pathway in 202659%at save

    This book backs

    NO

    • Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?No96%
    • Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?Yes10%

    Markets last priced this at 59%

  6. US Congress does not pass a major new Ukraine military aid package in 202689%at save

    This book backs

    NO

    • U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?No89%

    Markets last priced this at 89%

  7. Trump administration pushes a settlement requiring Ukraine to cede territory to Russia7%at save

    This book backs

    YES

    • U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?Yes7%
    • Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?Yes8%

    Markets last priced this at 7%

  8. Russia does not launch a direct military attack on a NATO member state in 202693%at save

    This book backs

    YES

    • NATO article 5 before 2027?No94%
    • NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?No91%
    • +1 more bet

    Markets last priced this at 93%

  9. EU imposes a new package of sanctions on Russia in 202698%at save

    This book backs

    YES

    • Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?No98%
    • Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?No98%

    Markets last priced this at 98%

  10. Ukraine's GDP growth forecast is downgraded amid continued territorial losses

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  11. Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure intensify through winter 2026

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

If only some of it happens

Drag to see what a partial hit pays.

If 11 of these 21 outcomes occur →≈0.7×per $1
Stake back at 16 of 21

Worst case 0.5× · typically 0.7× · best case 4.1× per $1.

Pick which ones
BetWhat it adds per $1

What brings the money back

Money back · 2 of 21these 2 bets landing returns the full stake.

Markets priced these landing together at around 9%. : around 24%.

Doubled · 3 of 21these 3 bets landing returns 2× the stake.

Markets priced these landing together at around 1%. : around 5%.

Any 16 of the 21 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 16 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.

Where the money sits

21 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.

+262%21 bets

NATO article 5 before 2027?

9.7%1.1×

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?

9.7%1×

Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

9.6%1×

December 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

7.5%1.1×

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

7.1%10.5×

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

6.4%1.1×

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

6.3%15.4×

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?

6.1%1.1×

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

5.9%1.1×

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?

5.7%1.1×
Below a flat split

Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?

4.0%1.1×

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

4.0%1.1×

Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

3.9%12.5×

Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?

3.8%1.1×

Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?

3.6%13.3×

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

2.2%1×

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?

2.0%30.8×

Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?

1.6%1×

December

<1%4.4×

August 31, 2026

<1%90.9×

December 31

<1%3.9×

Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 9.7%. The second rule marks an equal split.

All 21 bets, and how each is sized.

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