the chinese and the rest of the world starts dumping massive amounts of yen to
China and other global holders of yen will aggressively sell/dump yen (and US Treasuries) to probe how far the United States will go to backstop Japan's currency, triggering acute currency and bond-market stress.
Bet timeline: 6 markets, first verdict Sep 18, 2026, last Jan 1, 2027
- USD/JPY: Close Price End of 2026, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Bank of Japan Decision in September?, Sep 18, 2026 (in 31 days), still open
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Sep 18, 2026.
the chinese and the rest of the world starts dumping massive amounts of yen to stress test to see how far the US would backstop them
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
USD/JPY breaches 160 within the next two months33%at save
This book backs
YES — yen weakens past 160
What that looks like: USD/JPY prints above 160 in spot trading
Between 160 and 170USD/JPY: Close Price End of 202633%
Markets last priced this at 33%
Bank of Japan conducts emergency FX intervention to defend the yen
This book backs
YES — BOJ intervenes
What that looks like: MOF/BOJ confirms dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention
No bet in this book covers this claim.
China's holdings of US Treasuries drop further, evidencing active dumping
This book backs
YES — China Treasury holdings decline
What that looks like: TIC data shows a fresh multi-month low in China's UST holdings
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Yen carry-trade unwind triggers a sharp Nikkei selloff (>10% in a week), echoing Aug 202418%at save
This book backs
YES — Nikkei crashes on carry unwind
What that looks like: Nikkei 225 falls more than 10% over a five-trading-day span
Less than 55,000Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 202618%
Markets last priced this at 18%
What confirms it
Federal Reserve extends or expands a currency swap line with the Bank of Japan
This book backs
YES — swap line activated/expanded
What that looks like: Fed statement announcing/expanding a BOJ dollar swap facility
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Japanese Government Bond 10-year yield spikes above 1.5%63%at save
This book backs
YES — JGB yields spike
What that looks like: 10Y JGB yield closes above 1.5%
At least 3.0%Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 202663%
Markets last priced this at 63%
Bank of Japan hikes rates aggressively (>50bps in one move) to defend the currency1%at save
This book backs
YES — BOJ hikes aggressively
What that looks like: BOJ policy statement raising rates by 50bps or more
A 50+ bps increaseBank of Japan Decision in September?1%
Markets last priced this at 1%
US 10-year Treasury yield spikes as foreign selling pressures the bond market2%at save
This book backs
YES — Treasury yields spike
What that looks like: 10Y UST yield closes above 5%
3.5%How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?2%
Markets last priced this at 2%
G7 issues a joint statement or coordinated action on currency market intervention
This book backs
YES — G7 coordinates on currency stress
What that looks like: G7 finance ministers release joint currency statement
No bet in this book covers this claim.
US Treasury formally labels a trading partner (e.g., Japan or China) a currency manipulator
This book backs
YES — manipulator designation issued
What that looks like: US Treasury FX report names a new currency manipulator
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What pays it off
A major rating agency downgrades Japan's sovereign credit rating
This book backs
YES — Japan downgraded
What that looks like: Moody's, S&P, or Fitch cuts Japan's sovereign rating or outlook
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Bitcoin rallies to new highs as a hedge against currency-crisis contagion
This book backs
YES — Bitcoin rallies
What that looks like: Bitcoin sets a new all-time high amid yen crisis headlines
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Gold sets new record highs as safe-haven demand grows from the currency stress test
This book backs
YES — gold hits record highs
What that looks like: Spot gold sets a fresh all-time-high close
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.2× · typically 2× · best case 7.1× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 18%. : around 29%.
Markets priced these odds at around 18%. : around 29%.
Any 5 of the 6 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 5 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
6 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
Less than 55,000
Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026
At least 3.0%
Between 160 and 170
A 50+ bps increase
3.5%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 91%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 6 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own